Is The Astros Golden Age…Over?

After going on to defeat the Astros in the ALCS and then win the World Series against the D-backs, the Rangers have asserted themselves as the new top dogs of the baseball world, dethroning the other Texas team from the top in the process.

What does this mean for the Astros?

Back in 2011, Jim Crane would launch a six-year plan that would build the organization back up to where it was back in 2004-2005, but better. With the help from the likes of Mike Elias, the Astros’ then-young GM and analytics guru Sig Mejdal, they would help take the Astros from a bottom-feeder and a laughing stock to one of the most prolific, analytically sound, and well-run organizations in all of sports. Winning it all in 2017 and then making it back to the big dance again in 2019 was the reward of all those years of scouting, international drafting, and, well, tanking. Even amidst one of the more infamous scandals in MLB, the Astros have still retained their dominance on and off the field, but the train has shown signs of stopping recently.

With Kris Gross, a key part in the Astros’ scouting lab being recruited by the Mets, many key players hitting arbitration and free agency after next season, and the aging of the main core, the signs are starting to point towards the organization entering another rebuild era. Jim Crane’s firm stance on not spending big amounts on free agents in the off-season will influence the Astros’ unlikeliness to make many big moves for top starting pitching talent, such as Snell and Yamamoto, or big impact bats like Bellinger.

Obviously, they could still go out and grab cheaper options that they believe could suit the team, such as a James Paxton or Frankie Montas, but all these moves will be seen in a different viewpoint now. The Astros, for the first time in what feels like nearly a decade, will be operating to try and stay level with another divisional opponent: The Rangers.

Texas, who is coming off of their first World Series Championship, will most likely have all of their talent returning, and only have more on the way through their loaded farm system. The Astros sport the worst farm system in baseball, right behind the Los Angeles Angels. Right now, the Astros’ sustainability for their winning ways is much tighter than a team like Texas, because they simply don’t have the depth in their farm system to compete with them long-term.

Still, the Astros have had non-ranked prospects develop into elite major league talent the past few seasons. Yainer Díaz, Chas McCormick, Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez have all been valuable at the major league level, and none of them were ever on MLB’s top 100 pipeline. Even with the Astros’ excellent player development at the major league level, it is very apparent they are lacking in the minor leagues at the moment.

So, does this mean that their window is over? Well, yes and no. Every team goes through stages were they have to rebuild, whether a soft reset or a complete dismantling. If the Astros choose to do a soft reset, they could take a few years resetting the team’s core and their operations to try and get back to a World Series-caliber team. But if they choose the ladder, it could be another long stretch of dreadful baseball for the Astros.